Lawmakers from the House of Representatives requested a probe on OCTA Research after Dr. Edcel Salvaña from the Department of Health (DOH) Technical Advisory Group called the methodologies used in the research group’s projections as “problematic.”
Salvaña regards the research group’s reliance on “erroneous” data as detrimental and invalid. He highlights that some cases are subject to change, and also pointed out that there may be backlogs in two weeks’ worth of data. The infectious disease expert underscored the research group runs the risk of making false projections if they base their assumptions on “incomplete” data.
Research fellow Prof. Ranjit Rye from OCTA Research asserts that the think tank consists of members knowledgeable on research, coming from both the University of the Philippines (UP) and University of Santo Tomas (UST).
“Interdisciplinary kami… pag nakikita namin na may problema, then we all try to contribute, and I think we contributed well dahil sinuportahan kami ng ating mga mayor,” Rye stated.
(We are interdisciplinary. If we see that there is a problem, then we all try to contribute, and I think we contributed well because we are supported by our mayors.)
The think tank previously advised government officials to impose an “anticipatory, preventive, circuit-breaking lockdown,” as Metro Manila is “officially in a surge.” They urged that immediate response be taken to combat the rapid spread of the Delta variant, especially as the DOH has confirmed its local transmission in the country.
Salvaña, however, decries OCTA’s claims on an “official surge” as he claims there is no “epidemiologic, definite definition” of what a “surge” is. He went on to say the research group’s projections are mere “fortune-telling,” especially on a model released last July 22 by OCTA on a possible rise of over 8,000 cases.
This was immediately addressed by molecular biologist Fr. Nicanor Austriaco from OCTA Research, affirming that all models are indeed fortune-telling and asserted, however, that all the data they have used are “consistent with the trends and dynamics of the pandemic for the past 15, 16 months.”
Rye furthers that several public and private sectors source analysis from OCTA research group, debunking Salvaña’s persistent baseless criticism towards the research group.
Following Salvaña’s groundless claims, members from the HOR filed House Resolution No. 2075, urging investigation on OCTA’s “qualifications, research methodologies, partnerships, and composition.” The resolution was filed on August 4, Monday, by Deputy Speaker Bernadette Herrera, Deputy Speaker Kristine Singson – Meehan, Deputy Speaker Sharon Garin, Deputy Minority Speaker Stella Luz Quimbo, and Quezon City 4th District Representative Jesus Suntay.
The lawmakers were particularly inquisitive about the research group’s affiliation with the University of the Philippines (UP) as the university was previously mentioned in the group’s press statements, and were referred to as UP-OCTA in some news reports.
To this, Rye clarified that despite working full-time within the university, the research group is an independent firm and is not involved with UP.
OCTA Research was previously “requested” by Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque last October 2020 to stop publicizing their “recommendations on classifications as it is really the job of experts.” Roque suggests it best to turn their reports to the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) in private.
Research fellow Prof. Guido David from OCTA Research countered these statements and stated they were “doing this as a public service,” and hoped they were not “being silenced by the Palace.”
“I’m not sure if people are aware but we’re not actually commissioned for this, we’re not paid by the government [nor] anyone,” he furthered.
Metro Manila is set to go back to Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) starting August 6, until August 20. Lockdowns, however, “are empty measures without ramping up testing, tracing, and vaccination efforts, and will not be sustained without sufficient economic aid,” stressed by a medical student.
Furthermore, David projects that Delta variant cases may have already reached 2,000 in an online forum held last August 3, Tuesday. He furthers that a surge in the Metro is “definitely happening,” and that the increase in cases will “grow exponentially from this point.”
Featured image courtesy of Rappler.
