Make no mistake: Sara Duterte-Carpio will almost certainly run for president in 2022.
Duterte-Carpio’s early coyness is part of the age-old “pakipot playbook” used by so many politicians gunning for higher office. Her father, President Rodrigo Duterte, used the same playbook during his run for the presidency in 2016.
As Taylor Swift crooned in her song “exile,” we have seen this film before. And I am definitely not liking the ending.
Although Duterte-Carpio is still “unsure” of her electoral prospects, her supporters have been busy hanging “Run, Sara, Run” tarpaulins along EDSA, ramping up their social media presence, and organizing publicity events.
When 2022 aspirants file their candidacies come October, we can expect Duterte-Carpio to be singing a completely different tune. And misogynistic remarks about women in leadership from her father are unlikely to deter her.
Already, social media has poked fun at the whole fuss around “Run, Sara, Run,” with many comparing the slogan to a heartfelt goodbye to a deceased pet. However, do not let the memes fool you. Duterte-Carpio is no electoral slouch and she may well be the country’s next president.
Remember the Twitter thread that joked about the obscurity of my hometown, Pateros? Well, the smallest and only municipality in Metro Manila surely was not obscure for Duterte-Carpio. Under the banner of her Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP), she campaigned relentlessly during the 2019 midterm elections, reaching even the most “inconsequential” of places.
Therefore, Duterte-Carpio was able to raise her national profile and flex her political muscles. In a country where parties and candidates have barely distinct platforms, name recall can make or break campaigns. And Duterte-Carpio now has name recall in spades.
Unfortunately for the opposition, Duterte-Carpio is not the only “Duterte heir” to enjoy such an important advantage. A Pulse Asia poll conducted at the end of 2020 showed that four of the top five choices for president are willing to pose with the Duterte fist bump. Meanwhile, Vice President Leni Robredo only placed sixth in the survey.
A more recent poll conducted by OCTA Research in late January showed Duterte-Carpio leading the pack in both presidential and vice presidential races. Clearly, Duterte-Carpio has emerged as a frontrunner.
In many ways, the Filipino people will find themselves at a crossroads in 2022. If they allow a Duterte heir to prevail, it will deliver a verdict in favor of continuity with the previous administration. However, if they elect someone from the opposition as president, it will amount to a repudiation of Duterte’s failed leadership.
The dominance of Duterte heirs in pre-election surveys and conversations is good news for the President whose legacy hangs precariously in the balance. The presidency grants Duterte immunity from suit, and he has exploited this to worsen the culture of impunity and incite a human rights crisis in the Philippines. But without a sympathetic successor, Duterte could be in legal jeopardy once he is out of power.
Back in December 2020, the International Criminal Court (ICC) found “reasonable basis to believe” that crimes against humanity were committed under Duterte’s bloody war on drugs. In an effort to escape the ICC’s jurisdiction, the Duterte administration pulled the Philippines from the Rome Statute in 2019.
Nevertheless, the ICC “retains jurisdiction over alleged crimes that have occurred on the territory of the Philippines during the period when it was a State Party to the Statute,” from November 2011 to March 2019. Duterte will have to answer for his crimes.
Furthermore, Vera Files exposed that President Duterte had more than P100 million deposits at the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) that he did not report in his Statement of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth (SALN) during his stint as Davao City Mayor. Sara Duterte-Carpio is also a co-holder of this BPI account. The “simple man” persona is hiding a life of privilege and corruption.
But Duterte is not the only one who has much to lose with a defeat in 2022. Coming off a disappointing showing in the 2019 midterms, the opposition is also desperate for a win. Unfortunately, the path towards victory will not be easy.
The opposition infamously endured a shellacking in 2019, with no opposition candidate winning a Senate seat for the first time in 80 years. The election post-mortem revealed that the Otso Diretso’s message failed to resonate with voters. Combined with a negative campaign against a popular President and the lack of resources and political clout, it turned out to be a recipe for defeat.
Pointing out the Duterte administration’s failures is one thing. Convincing voters that you are best suited to bring genuine change is another. This is one of the many lessons the opposition must learn after 2019’s disappointment.
In order to emerge victorious in 2022, the opposition needs to advance an agenda that centers on “kitchen table issues.” Filipinos are hurting amid a pandemic, an economic recession, and a plethora of other crises. The opposition needs to devise ways on how to put food on people’s tables and money in their pockets. The people demand results.
Moreover, an organized, massive, and robust voter outreach program must already be in place. Rampant and coordinated smear campaigns on social media against viable opposition candidates must also be effectively countered.
The past five years under Duterte have proven how durable support for the president can be despite a mounting list of controversies and scandals. It is not enough to say that the other side failed. We have to convince voters that their welfare is our top priority and that we will fight for them every step of the way.
Government is only as good as the people we elect. Even the strongest democracies become fragile once dangerous and untrustworthy people are allowed to wield power. But in the pursuit of responsible leadership and good governance, we all have a role to play.
The false dichotomy of the “Dilawan” and “DDS” has led to a lot of unfriending or unfollowing on social media. Although disconnecting from people who disagree with us may “cleanse” our timelines, we also forfeit the opportunity to shatter their echo chambers and climb out of our own.
Social media is often an unreliable gauge of public opinion, so do not read into those comment sections too much. Many of the commenters may not even be real people. In an era of polarization, be the bridge over troubled waters. Every vote matters. Every Filipino matters.
Fixing what needs to be fixed in our country will take much time, painstaking effort, and yes, a little bit of luck. Although the hype for 2022 is now ratcheting up, it is sobering to remember that electing good people in government will not solve our problems in an instant.
But hey, it would be a pretty good start.
Artwork by Kate Gotis.
