The opposition presidentiables are in a game of Trip to Jerusalem. They will only run around in circles and get tired as they squabble over a seat. Unless they stop petty politics, everyone playing — and even everyone watching — loses. This is a game where only the man holding the music wins.
In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte won — like all Presidents after the Martial Law era — without a majority. Only 40% of the electorate supported his populism and fiery rhetoric against drugs and the softness of the incumbent administration. Many analysts argue that he won because Roxas and Poe split the vote, giving him just enough space to pull of a victory.
Whether it was the main reason or just a contributor, the point remains: division among “opposition” forces led to the past five years of incompetence and impunity.
Now, as the presidential election approaches further, history is about to repeat itself. Senators Panfilo Lacson and Manny Pacquiao have announced their candidacies. Manila Mayor Isko Moreno has, too. Vice President Leni Robredo, the opposition’s leader for the past five years, is still considering her own candidacy. This means that, whether or not Robredo runs, the administration candidate will face an opposition divided into three or four chunks instead of one united force.
Dividing and conquering is a strategy as old as war itself. Instead of facing off against a bigger army all at once, a weaker unit can pick off opponents one by one. They whittle away at their numbers, until they gain the upper hand.
The administration still has enough support to defeat a divided opposition. Regardless of the current administration’s performance, surveys continue to show a solid Duterte base. Sara and Rodrigo Duterte both topped the most recent Pulse Asia surveys by wide margins. Of the four opposition candidates mentioned, only Moreno managed to reach double digits.
Their decisions to run, especially in light of these polling numbers, point to a terrifying forecast: another six years of this administration’s incompetence. Six more years of blood splattered on pavement by men with masks. Six more years of terrible economic management, leading to the worst drop in Southeast Asia. Six more years of an administration that defaults to three solutions to every problem: conceal it, curse it, or kill it.
Perhaps, each candidate believes that they are the best. They may be the best potential president, the most winnable, or the best by whatever other criterion they choose. But this election is no longer about individual candidates. It is now about defeating a regime that has done so much damage to the country and preventing another term of this madness.
Instead of focusing on the fight against Duterte’s faction, the candidates will tire themselves out as they woo anti-Duterte voters. Meanwhile, the administration only has to maintain the supporters it already has. It is not impossible to win in a situation like this — especially if Duterte’s loyalist numbers fall even more in his last year. But it is not only an uphill battle; it is a climb up Mount Everest.
If they want what is best for the country, the anti-Duterte candidates must band together and form a single united front. If they do not, and stubbornly cling to their own presidential ambitions, they will be panting and sweating while Duterte and his cronies sit pretty and laugh at them. If they insist on playing this Trip to Jerusalem, it will be game over for us all, and only the administration will be left laughing.
Featured image courtesy of Politiko.
